Robert (Ribbit) LaMar
This BLOG also appears in the Washington Examiner where Ribbit Rob appears every Tuesday and Thursday!!!!
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said Tuesday that she will continue her campaign for the Republican presidential nod “until the last person votes” as former President Donald Trump hurtles toward the nomination.
Haley struck this defiant tone despite polls showing that she will lose her home state of South Carolina, where she was twice elected governor, by a bigger margin than she lost New Hampshire. The polling suggests that she will lose Michigan, and then most Super Tuesday states, by more than that.
The only light at the end of the tunnel looks like an oncoming Trump train.
“Some of you in the media came here today to see if I’m dropping out of the race,” Haley said. “Well, I’m not!”
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich famously won the 2012 South Carolina primary after hitting the media in a debate preceding the vote. It was the only time since the state’s GOP primary voters did not go for the eventual nominee.
Replicating that could prove a tall order for Haley. The latest USA Today-Suffolk poll of South Carolina showed her with 35% of the vote to Trump’s 63%. She trails him by 25.3 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average for the Palmetto State.
Nevertheless, Haley persisted. She maintained there was no “rush” to settle on a nominee when millions haven’t voted yet and said the Republican race shouldn’t be a “coronation.”
Major Democrats have hesitated to challenge President Joe Biden because they fear it will further damage their general election prospects. Attempts to unseat incumbent presidents through the primary process failed in 1976, 1980, and 1992, succeeding only when Lyndon Johnson dropped out of the race after the New Hampshire primary in 1968.
The incumbent president’s party lost all four elections. Primaries cost money and road-test attacks that can be used by the other party in the fall campaign. A protracted fight between Trump and Haley could enhance his liabilities with suburban women, for example, even if she does not end up beating him in any primaries or caucuses.
It could be the case that all the aforementioned incumbents drew primary opponents in the first place because they were already weak. But that is not the way Democrats with better prospects than Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) have bet in 2024.
Haley has pressed the opposite argument. “Republicans will get stronger through a vigorous competition,” she said. “We have plenty of time to hash this out.” And Trump is technically not an incumbent, though he is the most recent Republican president.
But if the national polling is any indication of where the contest is headed when multiple states begin voting simultaneously, Trump will soon register quasi-incumbent support. The latest Morning Consult survey has Trump ahead of Haley 81% to 18%, a 63-point gap.
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