Bleach gate

The narrative is too simple to resist. In rambling remarks, Trump seemed to suggest using light and disinfectants inside the body to kill the coronavirus. His more uncharitable critics said Trump had suggested that Americans drink bleach. Trump responded that he was being sarcastic. Bleach gate, because it is such a great hook, risks symbolizing and distorting the causes of Trump’s relatively weak coronavirus bounce and the timing of that bounce’s fade. It didn’t start with drinking bleach.

Bleach gate broke almost simultaneously with polling showing that Trump and Senate Republicans were faring poorly in swing states. Bleach gate, combined with the bad poll numbers, terrified Republican operatives, but Bleach gate could not have caused the bad poll numbers.

What caused Trump’s rally-round-the-flag effect to be so feeble and transient? Why has Trump’s party lost ground in Senate polling? The timing doesn’t fit Bleach gate. An explanation that better fits the timing is that Trump’s flirtations with the diehard opponents of social distancing limited the upside of his bounce as he both associated himself with an overwhelmingly unpopular cause and appeared irresolute at a time when the public wanted steadiness.